Now that interest rates are at, or near, their peak, attention has turned to how long they will stay elevated. Central bankers, wary of being complacent on inflation, have united behind a mantra of “higher for longer”. Huw Pill, the Bank of England’s chief economist, even chose to compare the UK’s likely rate path to Cape Town’s Table Mountain, with its high, flat top. That reality — reinforced by Friday’s strong US jobs data — is unnerving investors. In recent weeks, stock markets have tumbled, and long-term bond yields have soared.
既然利率已經處於峯值水準，或者離峯值水準不遠了，人們就把注意力轉向了利率會在高位上保持多久。央行官員不敢在通膨上掉以輕心，因此統一口徑，聲稱利率「會在更高水準上保持更長時間」。英國央行(BoE)首席經濟學家休•皮爾(Huw Pill)甚至將英國可能的利率路徑比作開普敦的「桌山」(Table Mountain)，因為後者有著又高、又平的山頂。這種現實狀況——美國週五發佈的強勁就業數據加深了其中的意味——讓投資者不安。近幾周來，股市大跌，長期國債收益率飆升。