The writer is senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, Berlin and visiting fellow at the European University Institute, Florence
Vladimir Putin appears to have overcome his biggest domestic crisis since the Chechen war with which his reign began. But the Russian president’s allies at home and abroad are not rushing to congratulate him. The mood among the elite and the tone of official propaganda are far from triumphant. The very possibility of a coup after 23 years of rule, and in the second year of the Ukraine war — a campaign supposed to cover Putin and his regime in glory — puts his grip on Russia into question. It also challenges the idea of unanimous support from a patriotic majority.
Wagner military group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin’s seizure of Rostov-on-Don, one of Russia’s largest cities, and their rapid advance to within 200km of Moscow painted a startling picture of the powerlessness of the authorities, even if partly explained by a desire to avoid bloodshed. Some residents of Rostov even handed flowers to the mutineers of the private military company. The people of a country taught by state propaganda that there is no greater betrayal than “colour revolutions” re-enacted the symbolic gesture typical of such uprisings.