New technologies create excitement. The invention of the railroad led to the “Railway Mania” in 1840s UK, which saw investors pile into railway stocks. In the 1920s the radio similarly captured the imagination. And more recently, euphoria over internet adoption saw the Nasdaq rise fivefold between 1995 and 2000. The hysteria stems in part from high expectations over how far and how fast innovations can boost human wellbeing and productivity, in addition to the “fear of missing out”. But in each case, the initial bubble burst as reality caught up with expectations. The rise of generative AI — particularly large language models, like OpenAI’s ChatGPT — has sparked a similar frenzy. Since ChatGPT’s launch last November, glowing reports on the potential economic impact of the technology — which can automate tasks from writing essays to generating code — have been coming thick and fast. Goldman Sachs estimated that it could drive gains in productivity that could raise global GDP by 7 per cent over a ten-year period.
新技術總是會催人激動。鐵路的發明導致英國在19世紀40年代出現「鐵路熱」(Railway Mania)，投資者紛紛湧入鐵路股。上世紀20年代，收音機曾以類似的方式激發人們的想像力。而在不那麼久之前，人們對網路普及的狂熱情緒使那斯達克(Nasdaq)指數在1995年至2000年期間上漲4倍。這種歇斯底里的背後除了「害怕踏空」的心理外，還源自人們對於創新能在多大程度上——以及多快——增進人類福祉和提高生產率抱有很高的期望。但最初的泡沫每每都會隨著現實與預期發生碰撞而破滅。