How is one to assess the possibility of a voluntary default by the world’s most important country? Is something as mad as this really likely to happen? What might be the consequences if it did? These questions are impossible to answer. This is not because it is a “black swan” — that is, unimaginable. A US default falls instead into a broad category of “known unknowns”, that is unforecastable, high-impact events. The financial crisis of 2007-09, the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine were of this kind.
如何評估世界上最重要國家自願違約的可能性？如此瘋狂的事情真有可能發生嗎？如果真的發生了，可能會有什麼後果？這些問題是無法回答的。這並非因爲它是「黑天鵝」事件（難以想像的事情）。相反，美國違約屬於「已知的未知」這一寬泛類別，也就是無法預測、衝擊力卻很大的事件。2007年至2009年的金融危機、新冠疫情和俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭都屬於這一類事件。
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