The Bank of England is forecasting the weakest growth of real post-tax labour incomes in more than 70 years, with a fall of 2 per cent this year and a further half a per cent in 2023. This depressing outlook captures the challenges generated by sharply higher import prices and the risks of more generalised inflation. Among leading high-income economies, the UK seems to be particularly hard hit. Inflationary risks seem similar to those in the US. But the UK is also a large net importer of energy, especially gas, as prices have exploded upwards. The government might have hoped that the fading of the pandemic’s clouds would leave a sunlit economy. But, as is their wont, events got in the way. The economy, the people and the government face hard times.
英國央行(Bank of England)預測，實際稅後勞動收入將出現70多年來最疲弱的成長，今年下降2%，2023年將再下降0.5%。這種令人沮喪的前景反映了進口價格大幅上漲所帶來的挑戰，以及整體通膨的風險。在主要高收入經濟體中，英國受到的打擊似乎尤爲嚴重。英國的通膨風險看上去與美國差不多，但英國也是能源（尤其是天然氣）淨進口國，而能源價格已大幅上漲。英國政府或許曾希望，疫情的陰雲消散後，會留下一個陽光燦爛的經濟。但是，像往常一樣，事情又一次出了岔子。英國經濟、英國人民和英國政府都面臨苦日子。