While 2021 was a year of strong economic recovery, that recovery was neither universal nor complete. Unfortunately, prospects for 2022 now look worse than the IMF forecast last October: the main culprits, it argues, being the Omicron Covid-19 variant, supply shortages and unexpectedly high inflation. Downgrades in forecasts are particularly sharp for the US and China. Uncertainties are large, with risks concentrated on the downside. Above all, it is easier to argue that the fund’s base case is too optimistic than pessimistic.
儘管2021年是經濟強勁復甦的一年，但這一復甦既不是普遍的，也不是完全的。遺憾的是，國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)認爲2022年的前景現在看起來比其去年10月的預測要糟：該組織認爲，主要的原因是新冠病毒Omicron變種、供應短缺和出人意料的高通膨。對美國和中國經濟增速的預測下調幅度尤其大。不確定性很大，風險主要偏向下行。最重要的是，主張IMF的基線預測過於樂觀，比主張它過於悲觀更容易。
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