What should central banks target? Since the early 1990s the answer has increasingly been “consumer price inflation”. But this has never been unchallenged. Today, there are four alternative positions. One thinks central banks should target asset prices. Another thinks they should target a “just” interest rate. Yet another thinks they should target real activity. The last thinks they should target some other nominal goal, such as the price level or nominal gross domestic product. These are important debates. But the reality remains: central banking is art, not science. The art must be guided by sensible goals coupled to deep awareness of uncertainty.
央行應該以什麼爲目標？自1990年代早期以來，越來越多的答案是「消費者價格通膨」。但這一點一直以來都遭受到質疑。今天還存在另外四種觀點。第一種認爲央行應該以資產價格爲目標。第二種認爲央行應該以「適當的」利率爲目標。第三種認爲央行應該以實體經濟活動爲目標。第四種認爲央行應該制定其他的名義目標，如價格水準或者名義國內生產毛額(GDP)。這些討論很重要。但現實仍然是：央行搞的是藝術，而不是科學。這門藝術必須以合理的目標和對不確定性的深刻認識爲指導方針。