Theatrics and brinkmanship have become a wearyingly familiar part of Brexit. Downing Street’s declaration on Friday that talks on a future trade accord were “over” appears a reprise of Boris Johnson’s tactics in exit talks a year ago: threaten no deal, use that as political cover to make concessions, then sell the final agreement as a triumph for toughness. The prime minister’s claim that the UK is ready to go it alone when the transition period ends in December is surely a bluff. Brussels knows that. The danger is that miscalculations blow up the talks despite both sides’ desire for a deal. That would be worse for the UK — but, on top of a resurgent pandemic, it would damage the EU too.
Both parties share blame for the current impasse. Mr Johnson had raised the stakes by threatening to “move on” if there was no agreement by last Thursday’s EU summit. When, despite recent progress, a deal remained elusive, EU leaders called his bluff. But they fumbled the diplomatic footwork. The summit’s concluding statement implied all concessions must come from the UK. A pledge to intensify talks was removed — apparently to avoid the EU and its lead negotiator, Michel Barnier, appearing to be dancing too much to Mr Johnson’s tune.
The UK premier has not made things easier by adopting a disingenuous narrative: that the EU is unwilling to grant Britain the “Canada-style” trade deal it seeks, and an “Australia-style” arrangement is acceptable. In reality, the UK wants an accord that goes beyond the Canadian model in key areas. Britain’s much closer proximity and higher trade volumes with the EU mean Brussels must take steps to ensure it does not become an unfair offshore competitor. The Australian model is in essence a euphemism for no deal. Unhappy with its current terms, Canberra is even now trying to negotiate an EU free trade agreement.