The writer is chief economist at Enodo Economics
Alan Greenspan was doubtless right in 2004 when the then US Federal Reserve chairman likened exchange rate forecasting to predicting the toss of a coin. But sometimes you can tell the coin is biased: in the case of the renminbi, an array of economic and political factors are pointing to a continued rise in the Chinese currency over the coming months.
There is no such thing as a winner in a global pandemic. But, after blundering badly when it covered up the initial outbreak of Covid-19 in Wuhan, China contained the virus more swiftly than most countries thanks to a fierce lockdown. As a result, the economy has staged a V-like recovery that has been reflected in recent renminbi strength.
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