According to an old joke, economists have predicted nine out of the five past US recessions. Equally, western pundits have predicted 10 out of the zero Chinese credit crises this century.
In September, Lex opined that “warnings of a banking crisis by bearish westerners are overdone”. We were right: predictions of a non-performing loans (NPL) disaster in China's banking sector have not yet materialised. They are not likely to next year, either.
The five biggest lenders have had to deal with a trade war and a sharp slowdown in China’s economy. Their net profits have jumped and their asset quality has improved, even so.
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