Much of what has happened over the past 12 months in the energy market was well predicted. Yet there were surprises that underline the mood of uncertainty that pervades the sector.
Oil prices, gas supply and coal demand all followed expected paths. Supplies are plentiful and prices remained low.
But Iran, which a year ago I expected to dominate the news in 2019, has survived another year of pressure and sanctions and remains an influential and disruptive force in the Middle East. Sanctions have been partially effective — cutting exports to as little as 350,000 barrels a day in November and reducing national income in ways that have begun to cause widespread discontent and protest within the country. The market has shrugged off the reduction in exports, however.