It may be futile to try to predict what motivates Donald Trump on trade policy. For investors, however, it is a painful but necessary task.
This week, Mr Trump appeared to suddenly reverse course on the prospects of a bilateral trade deal with China. Markets, which had expected the deal was close to completion, were shocked and stock prices fell sharply. Instead of imminent agreement, trade tensions escalated, with the threat of a new round of tariffs.
So far, Mr Trump’s trade wars have not had disastrous macroeconomic effects either locally or globally. There is currently a considerable disconnect between the discord around the negotiating table and in the equity markets and, in most cases, what has heretofore happened to the real economy.
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