In recent weeks, there has been a major change in market expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate policy in 2019.
In early October, with chairman Jay Powell still sounding hawkish, markets expected that there would be three rate hikes of 25 basis points each next year, taking monetary policy decisively into restrictive territory. These expectations have now melted away and the forward markets show only one hike in 2019.
Recent signals from many Federal Open Market Committee members, including the most influential (Mr Powell, vice-chairman Richard Clarida, New York Fed president John Williams and governor Lael Brainard) have left little room for doubt that policy guidance will be changed when rates are raised one more time by 25 basis points at the meeting on 19 December.