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South Korea: the fear of China’s shadow

In the corridors of power in Seoul, among the policymakers, economists and businesspeople who drive Asia’s fourth-largest economy, conversation is dominated by one unlikely topic: crisis.

From the outside this may seem odd, given the South Korean economy appears in robust shape. Growth this year is forecast to be just under 3 per cent, while exports remain buoyant and unemployment less than 4 per cent.

But these indicators mask a stark reality for the one-time Asian tiger economy. Looming on the horizon sits a confluence of factors that economists believe could dramatically affect the country’s growth trajectory, unless the government begins serious structural reforms immediately.

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