觀點投資

Stocks bear an unduly heavy burden of expectation
謹慎看待企業上調盈利預測對股價影響


奧瑟茲:本財報季,美國企業紛紛在公佈財報前上調盈利預測,主要原因是美國減稅計劃,但長期而言利潤率總會迴歸均值。

After years of covering quarterly earnings seasons, I am heartily sick of them. The expectations game, as companies talk down their prospects as the earnings announcement approaches, only to spring a “surprise” by beating the lower bar they set for themselves, is an annoying, phoney ritual. Companies frequently sucker those of us in the press into giving them good coverage and sucker investors into buying their shares.

在報導過多年的季度財報季後,我真心厭倦這些東西。隨著財報公佈時間的臨近,企業會下調前景展望,好在之後超出他們爲自己設定的較低目標來製造「意外」——這種預期遊戲成了一種讓人討厭的虛假套路。企業會頻繁哄騙我們這些媒體人爲他們說好話,再哄騙投資者買入他們的股票。

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