It is testament to the economic wrongheadedness and political ineptness of Donald Trump’s trade policy that even when he has a point, his actions manage to alienate America’s natural allies.
First Mr Trump announced tariffs on steel and aluminium, ostensibly aimed at enhancing national security but in fact squeezing those US allies that do not manage to negotiate exemptions. His next target, China’s abuse of intellectual property, is a far more justified focus of activist policy. But the set of unilateral actions Mr Trump has laid out is likely to escalate trade conflict without resolving the underlying problem. While 25 per cent tariffs on up to $60bn on Chinese industrial and technology products, planned restrictions on Chinese investment in the US and a World Trade Organization lawsuit sound tough, there are limits on what the US can do alone.
There is an international coalition there for the taking — it has even started to assemble itself — if Mr Trump wants to take on China’s distorting policies on trade and investment. But that will require subtlety on the part of his administration, and a willingness to use all the tools, including multilateral ones, at its disposal. As things stand, Mr Trump is driving the US towards a trade war that he is highly unlikely to win.