In the last few years, it has become widely accepted that the global economy has been mired in a depressed condition that Lawrence Summers has called secular stagnation. Although this term was widely deemed to be too pessimistic when Summers first used it in 2013, it soon gained traction among central bankers, whether or not they chose to admit it. The equilibrium real interest rate, r*, was revised downwards almost everywhere. As a result, policy rates were held “lower for longer”, and global central bank balance sheets continued to expand rapidly.
過去幾年裏，全球經濟陷入勞倫斯•薩默斯(Lawrence Summers)所說的長期停滯低迷狀態的觀點被廣泛接受。雖然薩默斯於2013年首次提出這一觀點時，人們普遍認爲其過於悲觀，不過，它很快就在各國央行人士中引起了一些共鳴，不論他們是否承認這一點。全球幾乎所有國家的均衡實際利率r *都被下調。其結果是，政策利率在「更長時間內保持在低位」，全球央行的資產負債表繼續快速膨脹。
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