China’s investment around the world is an important and developing phenomenon. But both its successes and its setbacks are being overstated. This risks warping business and policy decision-making. In particular, there is no sign at the global level of greater hostility in host countries toward Chinese companies.
The problem starts with the definition of success. Sources offer 2016 figures as high as $247bn for the PRC’s overseas deals in 2016. But the indicator used is closer to “circulated acquisition ideas” than “deals.”
The American Enterprise Institute’s China Global Investment Tracker and China’s Ministry of Commerce agree on a first estimate of $170bn for outbound investment. While the $170bn results could be revised upward, they also include greenfield investment. Total investment rose sharply in 2016. It certainly did not double over 2015, as some claim.