Theresa May is no longer Theresa Maybe, as The Economist dubbed her. After months of gnomic statements, the prime minister appears to have locked herself in a dark room over Christmas and taken the hard decisions about Brexit. In her speech on Tuesday, she outlined a bold plan of intentions: the UK will leave the single market, regain full control over EU immigration and pursue trade agreements with the EU and other countries. In short, Mrs May confirmed that the government is pursuing a “Canada+” model. Both in the UK and elsewhere, a statement of intent is most welcome. Now, the really hard part is making it happen.
There was clarity too on a transition deal. Mrs May said she wishes to avoid a “disruptive cliff-edge” — and the markets responded favourably with sterling rebounding. There will be a “phased process of implementation” over a finite time but it is still unclear how this will work or what will change between the end of the Article 50 process and the ultimate break with the EU. This may be out of Britain’s hands — the EU27 nations will have their own thoughts about the terms of the transition.
The largest unknown area is the UK’s future in the customs union, which provides for the frictionless movement of goods across Europe. Mrs May admitted that remaining a full member was off the table — she wants Britain to strike its own trade deals. But nor does she want to quit entirely. Instead, Britain may become “an associate member of the customs union in some way” — a rejigging of the notorious “have our cake and eat it” formula.