觀點預測

Forecasters use their expertise to help us shape our daily lives
我們還能相信預測嗎?


列韋林:英國退歐派領袖戈夫曾嘲笑從事預測工作的專家。但預測無法做到完全準確,並不能證明戈夫是正確的。

Full disclosure: for much of my professional life I have been an economic forecaster. So I felt targeted when Michael Gove, a leading Brexiter, said during the EU referendum campaign that “the people of this country have had enough of experts with organisations with acronyms saying that they know what is best and getting it consistently wrong”.

首先,我需要先全面披露一下我的身分:在我職業生涯的大部分時間裏,我一直是一個經濟預測者。因此,當英國退歐派的領軍人物邁克爾•戈夫(Michael Gove,見上圖)在退歐公投運動中說「這個國家的民衆已經受夠了那些來自名字爲縮寫的組織、聲稱他們知道什麼是最好、但卻不斷搞錯的專家」,我感覺自己成了靶子。

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