The west’s misreading of the Sino-Soviet split in the 1950s and early 1960s was one of the great intelligence failures of the cold war. Had the US realised the extent of animosity between the two powers, it might have found ways to exploit the differences earlier.
Today, the US and its allies are in danger of making the opposite mistake. Most serious western analysts dismiss the possibility that Russia and China could ever form a true alliance. Even many Chinese and Russian experts say historical and cultural mistrust is simply too great for each side.
But the Sino-Russian relationship has already become much closer much faster than most had anticipated. A fully fledged alliance built on shared antagonism towards the US-dominated world order is a possibility, if not yet a reality.