Investors in emerging markets need no reminder of the importance for EM assets of the US Federal Reserve — or do they?
In a working paper published on Tuesday, Robin Koepke, economist at the Institute of International Finance, an industry group, argues that investors, EM policymakers and the Fed itself have neglected the role of US interest rates in provoking currency, banking and debt crises in the emerging world.
It is a timely warning. His findings, he writes, “point to a heightened risk of emerging market crises in the coming years as the Fed continues to normalise interest rates”.
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