When it comes to luxury goods in China, “the future”, says Erwan Rambourg, “is female”. Mr Rambourg, who is global co-head of consumer and retail research at HSBC, says the market has undergone a deep shift, in no small part because of China’s anti-corruption drive, which tightened up rules on “gifting” between executives, largely men. “It’s moved from a male-, watch- and gifting-driven market to a more female-dominated luxury space.”
While luxury watchmakers selling in China have been plagued by overstock, volatile currency fluctuations and the anti-corruption campaign, the jewellery market in comparison looks brighter. Both are facing slower growth, says Mr Rambourg, but there are “fundamental differences” between the sectors which look likely to favour jewellery.
China’s jewellery market will not in the near future see 22 per cent annual growth, as it did from 2009 to 2015, but it nevertheless grew by 7.3 per cent to Rmb306.9bn ($47bn) in 2015, according to HSBC. This is above the 5 per cent HSBC forecasts for the sector in each of the next three years, which — while pallid — is at least positive. (Euromonitor forecasts 7 per cent compound annual growth in 2015-20.)