China has been told its economy could be worth $5.6tn more by 2030 if it steers away from investment-led growth and embraces productivity reforms.
McKinsey, the business consultancy, calculates labour productivity in China is only 15-30 per cent of the average for countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. That implies significant room for further catch-up growth before China reaches the global technological frontier where further gains become more difficult.
In a report McKinsey warns the need to reform is urgent given that the old model continues to cause rising debt and falling returns on corporate investment.
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