On June 23, the UK will vote on whether to remain in the EU. On November 8, the US will vote on whether to elect Donald Trump as president. These elections have much in common. Both could lead to outcomes that would have seemed inconceivable not long ago. Both pit angry populists against the political establishment. And in both cases, polling suggests that the outcome is in doubt, with prediction markets suggesting a probability of between one in four and one in three of the radical outcome occurring.
6月23日，英國將投票決定是否繼續留在歐盟(EU)內。11月8日，美國將投票決定是否選舉唐納•川普(Donald Trump)爲總統。這兩場投票有很多相似之處。它們可能導致的結果，在不久前看來都還讓人覺得不可思議。兩者都是憤怒的民粹主義者對上政治建制派。對於兩場投票，民調均顯示結果難以預料，預測市場顯示極端結果出現的可能性在四分之一至三分之一之間。
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