Barack Obama’s “pivot to Asia” was always well founded. The world’s gravity is shifting eastward and it makes sense for the US to adjust to that reality. Yet as America’s leader conducts his farewell trip to Asia, there are real questions about whether the pivot will outlast his presidency.
The most pressing concern is whether Donald Trump will succeed Mr Obama in the White House. The Manhattan tycoon’s “America first” mantra undercuts the bipartisan assumptions that have driven 70 years of US foreign policy, not least in the Asia Pacific. Pax Americana has by and large kept the peace and underwritten the expansion of trade and investment that has fuelled the region’s dramatic rise to prosperity. There is little Mr Obama can tell his hosts that they do not already know. Hillary Clinton — the region’s unspoken choice as the next US president — remains odds-on favourite to win in November. But nothing is as certain as it used to be.
That especially holds for America’s stance on trade. Mr Obama’s Transpacific Partnership is the economic centrepiece of his Asia rebalancing. Yet there are real doubts as to whether he can persuade Congress to enact it before he leaves office. The only realistic hope is to push it through during the lame-duck session after the election. If that fails, then all bets are off.