Although economics was derided by the historian Thomas Carlyle as the “dismal science,” it is optimism that infects the profession — and it runs so deep that economists rarely see recessions coming.
Even in early 2008, when markets were crashing, a survey of leading forecasters by the Philadelphia branch of the Federal Reserve showed that none predicted negative growth for the US that year.
Now, despite evidence that the world economy is near to another recession, a similar survey shows that not one of the 40 leading economists believes there will be a US downturn this year.
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