With the US Federal Reserve’s first rate rise approaching, China’s decision to allow the renminbi to depreciate bears similarities to the Swiss National Bank’s pre-emptive reaction to European quantitative easing in January. The lessons from other discarded currency pegs loom large. Asia and Latin America in the 1990s taught us that currency pegs reinforced and indeed exacerbated financial cycles. Asset prices tended to overshoot on the upside, creating macro imbalances that were eventually corrected through catastrophic devaluations.
隨著美聯準(Fed)首次加息時間臨近，中國決定允許人民幣貶值，這與今年1月瑞士央行(Swiss National Bank)搶在歐洲啓動量化寬鬆之前採取行動有相似之處。其他國家放棄匯率錨定的先例帶給我們的經驗教訓歷歷在目。上世紀90年代亞洲和拉丁美洲的經歷告訴我們，匯率錨定強化且事實上加劇了金融週期。資產價格往往過度升高，導致宏觀經濟失衡，最終通過災難性貶值才得以糾正。
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