For investors who are more bearish on China than consensus, Citigroup’s Asian economists suggest shorting a group of no fewer than nine currencies, including the Chilean peso, Norwegian krone, Russian rouble, Malaysian ringgit, the Australian, New Zealand and Taiwan dollars, South Korea’s won and the Thai baht.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs is reversing some long-term macro calls. A decade ago it encouraged investors to short the US dollar, given slowing growth and high debt levels, take big positions in emerging markets with their clean balance sheets and growth prospects, and embrace commodities, given under-investment and supply constraints.
All these factors have reversed. “A decade of investment in commodity productive capacity and new technologies has created excess capacity in most commodity markets, which will weigh on both costs and commodity prices, creating a deflationary impulse globally,” Goldman warns.