In 2013 Ben Bernanke triggered a “taper tantrum” in financial markets across the world with hints of an earlier than expected end to quantitative easing. His successor as chair of the US Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, is determined not to do the same and catch the markets unaware.
So far, Ms Yellen is making a good job of it. Little by little she is acclimatising us to the prospect of a gradual turn in the US interest rate cycle. The markets this week reacted calmly to her hint that the Fed will drop the word “patient” from its guidance at its next meeting in March. In other words, the Fed would no longer pledge to keep its policy rate at zero for at least the next two meetings. From now on its actions will be dictated wholly by the data. This keeps open the possibility of a tightening in monetary policy as early as June.
But taking this stance is not the same as forecasting a definite rate rise. That is how it should be. Ms Yellen deserves credit for sharing a degree of humility about the precise strength of the US recovery.