On the surface, the political transition in Saudi Arabia following the death of the much-revered King Abdullah has proceeded without a hitch. Salman, a half-brother of the former king, is the new ruler, while the recently named deputy, Crown Prince Muqrin, the youngest surviving son of Saudi Arabia’s founder, has moved up in line to the throne.
But in Riyadh, as elsewhere, appearances can be deceiving. Saudi Arabia faces long-term questions over political leadership and myriad immediate challenges. The succession issue has been shelved, not solved. King Salman is 79 and in poor health; Muqrin is 69. Ironically, given Saudi contempt for “godless communism”, the situation there is reminiscent of nothing so much as the gerontocracy that was the Soviet Union in the 1980s. And while the appointment of a next generation deputy crown prince is significant, competition among individuals, factions, and families over who will dominate the pivotal oil-rich country will be unavoidable.
The jockeying for political primacy will start sooner than many appreciate. But the most pressing challenge for the new collective leadership — one that will be hamstrung by the existence of strong political fiefdoms and a relatively weak centre — is how to deal with a strategic environment that has deteriorated markedly from the Saudi vantage point.
