The yen has been losing value at a more rapid pace against the dollar since the Bank of Japan launched its latest round of quantitative easing a month ago, and was trading at more than Y118 to the greenback at last glance.
Monetary easing, the first arrow of Abenomics, has always been the most efficacious in Tokyo’s quiver. But its purpose is only partly about the central bank’s oft-voiced commitment to driving inflation up and ending a deflationary mindset, a mindset politicians insist is responsible for weak consumption and weak capital expenditure. That first arrow is about driving down the yen and stimulating exports. Everything else is more needles than arrows.
That disguised cheap yen policy meant that in the third quarter, exports were up 5.3 per cent in a world where trade is stagnant and has been for a couple of years. That data point was the only healthy one in a dismal period – even by Japanese standards. Private consumption rose a meagre 1.5 per cent after an 18.6 per cent drop the previous quarter and capex was a negative 0.9 per cent after a 17.9 per cent plunge in the second quarter. In other words, in a period where GDP was also negative, trade accounted for a positive 0.4 per cent contribution to growth.