Ukraine is ravaged by war, aggravating its economic and financial crisis. It needs major reforms but also substantial international assistance, not only credits but also ample grants. Its emergency calls for a Marshall Plan.
Now, as in 1947, the words of George Marshall, then US secretary of state, ring true: “It is logical that the United States should do whatever it is able to do to assist in the return of normal economic health to the world, without which there can be no political stability and no assured peace.” But today the onus rests on the EU.
The National Bank of Ukraine forecasts that the country’s economic output will plummet by 10 per cent this year. Then the budget deficit will surge to 15 per cent of gross domestic product, and the public debt to more than 100 per cent of GDP next year. The Ukrainian currency has already been devalued by 60 per cent, driving inflation to 19 per cent. A classical devaluation-inflation cycle is near and can lead to a financial meltdown.