Russia does not face an immediate threat from the sharp fall in oil prices over recent months. While the economy is heavily dependent on oil, the country’s accumulated reserves and the floating rouble will mitigate the shock, and Russia should be able to withstand levels of $80 to $90 a barrel for about two years. But in the longer term, persistently low prices – reinforced by the pressure imposed by western sanctions – could pose an existential challenge to Vladimir Putin’s regime.
最近幾個月的油價急劇下跌不會立即對俄羅斯造成威脅。儘管俄羅斯經濟嚴重依賴石油，但該國積累的鉅額外匯儲備以及盧布匯率自由浮動將會緩解油價下跌的衝擊，俄羅斯應該有能力在兩年左右的時間裏抵禦油價在每桶80美元至90美元之間帶來的衝擊。但從更長期而言，油價持續低迷（再加上西方制裁所造成的壓力）可能會給弗拉迪米爾•普丁(Vladimir Putin)的政權帶來生死存亡的挑戰。
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