If investors felt the first flutters of nerves last week over Scotland’s referendum, they are now on high alert.
The publication of the first poll to put the pro-independence campaign in the lead prompted a sharp fall in the pound yesterday and a sell-off in shares of companies with Scottish exposure. It also led to a marked shift in investors’ expectations for the timing of a rise in UK interest rates.
Until this month, markets had all but ignored the battle, viewing the risk of Scotland voting to break away as minimal. But recent polls showing a surge in support for the Yes campaign make the race look a “statistical dead heat”, according to Michael Saunders, an economist at Citigroup.
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