Vladimir Putin spent five years in the former communist German Democratic Republic in the 1980s as an intelligence officer for the Soviet KGB. He prides himself on his understanding of Germany.
Yet the Russian president badly miscalculated the mood and determination of Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, over the current crisis in Ukraine. His experience was obviously out of date.
When the 28 EU member states agreed to impose tougher sanctions on Russia last month because of Moscow’s support for armed separatists in the Ukrainian civil war, the decision was greeted with shock in the Kremlin. Mr Putin had expected the German chancellor to resist taking any action that would seriously affect German exporters.