Sling money into Singapore in the past few years, and you would have watched it go nowhere while neighbouring markets soared on the back of good growth and cheap money. But if the volatility linked to Federal Reserve plans to taper quantitative easing continues, then the developed market among the former emerging market darlings is worth another look.
Old hands could be forgiven for scepticism: in five years, the Straits Times index has gained less than a sixth, paling next to the 60 per cent in Malaysia and not on the same scale as the doubling in Jakarta and Bangkok or the near-trebling in Manila. So far this year, the index is up 2 per cent, undershooting its regional rivals. So Singapore is not a market struggling to meet high expectations. Blue chips trade at 15 times this year’s forecast earnings – a smidgen above average. Relative to book value, the index, at 1.5 times, is far cheaper than rivals. Even Kuala Lumpur, another so-so performer, is trading at half as much again while Jakarta and Manila are double.
Even surprisingly strong growth data have failed to excite the market. Singapore’s gross domestic product jumped 3.7 per cent annually in the second quarter, its best rate in two years. Even stripping out one-offs, the data were strong enough to prompt some GDP upgrades. And yet expectations for earnings per share growth this year are anaemic at 1 per cent, according to Citigroup, compared with 18 per cent for Thailand and 15 per cent in Jakarta.