A definitive prime ministerial speech on Europe has been promised for nearly a year. The latest briefing suggests it is 50-50 whether it is delivered before or after Christmas. I know how tempting it is in No 10 just to get the speech done but I would urge David Cameron to delay.
For it will involve probably the most significant decision he will take as prime minister. I fear we are on a path that leads to exit from the EU without having fully thought through the consequences.
We know from London mayor Boris Johnson’s unauthorised preview that the centrepiece of the speech will be a commitment to a referendum on a new, looser relationship with the EU or leaving it. However, a referendum, to be effective, must pose a choice between two real options. Mr Cameron has admirably shown his grasp of that point by forcing Alex Salmond, Scottish National party leader, to back down on the third “devo max” option in the Scottish referendum. But the same clarity is not true of his reported approach to Europe. There simply is no “back to the future” option of the kind backbench Conservative MP Liam Fox and his eurosceptic supporters want.