High-rollers prefer privacy. That makes the fight between gaming tycoons Steve Wynn and Kazuo Okada over a stake in Wynn Resorts, and Sheldon Adelson’s decision to adorn his latest Macau casino with a replica of the Eiffel Tower, all the more entertaining. But it distracts from the bigger question: what has happened to Macau’s high-rollers?
Knowing who they are is a start. Only casino owners and the junket operators that bring them in really know. However, a 2010 study of VIP gamblers by the Macau Polytechnic Institute concluded that a quarter are Chinese government officials, almost as many are managers in state-owned enterprises, and a third run private businesses. High-rollers account for more than two-thirds of Macau’s gaming revenues ($39bn expected this year, almost seven times more than Las Vegas). But growth in those revenues has slowed sharply, from 20 per cent annually earlier this year to just 1.5 per cent in July; the rate in August was 5.5 per cent. Businessmen are under cash flow pressure, and Chinese local government finances have felt the effects of a credit squeeze, fewer land sales and rising debts.
Macau gaming has until now been about growth as much as profit margins, and the former has been driven by VIPs. Mass-market revenues have grown at a compound annual rate of 25 per cent since 2006; revenues from high-rollers have grown half as much again, according to Jefferies. Mr Adelson unveiled a French-themed $2.5bn project in Macau under Sands Chinayesterday. Crucially, it is family-friendly. This is good for margins, because regular punters pay for hotels and dinners; VIPs do not. But the shift in focus implies slower growth. Shares in Wynn Macauand Sands China are up a third in eight weeks. That is all very well, just so long as investors are not still gambling on high growth rates.