Over the last two weeks, Chinese consumers of thermal coal and iron ore have been defaulting on their contracts, sending prices sharply down.
The reason behind the cancellations is a hotly debated topic in the physical commodities market.
Analysts and traders have put forward two radically different theories – with almost opposite implications to global commodities markets: either Chinese buyers do not need the raw materials because weak demand and high inventories – a bearish scenario – or they need the shipments, but they are defaulting to take advantage of falling prices and they plan to rebook at a lower costs – neutral to bullish.
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