Last Sunday I received an exuberant text message from Yulia, a 20-something public affairs manager for a big investment company: “Kostya, it’s a real celebration going on here!” She was standing in a human chain that ringed Moscow’s centre as a symbol of . . . what?
Sreda, a polling agency that tracks social trends, sampled protesters’ values. The top three were family, freedom and justice. That is why opposition rallies in Moscow have a unique atmosphere of goodwill and camaraderie, which I last felt in the 1990-91 peaceful anti-communist revolt. It is not so much a political movement as a broad movement of citizens, which the American scholar Leon Aron has rightly compared to the 1960s US civil rights movement.
This is a promising sign for all those who fear Russia’s descent into chaos. I have never believed in a Libyan or Syrian-style scenario for Russia. My country is not suffering from the deep religious and tribal divisions of the Arab world. It does not have tens of millions of frustrated, unemployed young men, ready for any action to improve their lot. Moreover, in Russia we are mindful, even if subconsciously, of the tragic lessons of the 20th century: there is an instinctive fear of violence on both sides of the political divide. The authorities have been quite restrained in dealing with the opposition. Just compare the situation to that of neighbouring Belarus, where president Alexander Lukashenko has all but bulldozed political dissent out of existence.