The next big global financial crisis will emanate from China. That is not a firm prediction. But few countries have avoided crises after financial liberalisation and global integration. Think of the US in the 1930s, Japan and Sweden in the early 1990s, Mexico and South Korea in the later 1990s and the US, UK and much of the eurozone now. Financial crises afflict every kind of country. As Carmen Reinhart of the Peterson Institute for International Economics and Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard have remarked, they are “an equal opportunity menace”. Would China be different? Only if Chinese policymakers retain their caution.
下一場嚴重的全球金融危機將源自中國。這不是一個有著十足把握的預測。然而，很少有國家能在金融自由化和全球融合之後避免危機。想想上世紀30年代的美國，上世紀90年代初的日本和瑞典，上世紀90年代末的墨西哥和南韓，以及如今的美國、英國和歐元區大部分國家。金融危機侵害著每一種類型的國家。正如彼得森國際經濟研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)的卡門•萊因哈特(Carmen Reinhart)和哈佛大學的肯尼思•羅格夫(Kenneth Rogoff)所說，金融危機「發生的機會是均等的」。中國會與衆不同嗎？除非中國的決策者能保持謹慎。