The Chinese renminbi could pose a threat to the international dominance of the US dollar within five to 10 years, the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission warned this month in its annual report to Congress.
But based on the latest data, this prediction might be premature. In contrast to popular perception, evidence from China suggests that the internationalisation of the renminbi is stalling – and in many respects it has barely got off the ground.
In its most recent monetary policy report, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) revealed that the amount of cross-border trade settled in renminbi fell in the third quarter, the first decline since China started using its own currency for imports and exports in June 2009.
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