As of last week, the eurozone no longer had a functioning sovereign bond market. The crisis has spread to France, whose bond spreads have approached Italian levels of six months ago. The unfortunate accident of Standard & Poor’s mistaken publication of a French ratings downgrade tells us that the rating agency is clearly preparing a downgrade. It merely pressed the button too early. The European financial stability facility, the fragile and undercapitalised construction on which Europe’s rescue strategy rests, is therefore also likely to lose its triple A rating. The prospect of a temporary return of sanity in Italian politics eased the pressure a little at the end of last week. But this does not change the depressing reality that the eurozone may be only weeks away from a financial collapse.
截止到上週，歐元區國債市場已全線癱瘓。法國與德國的國債息差已逼近6個月前義大利的息差水準，這表明歐元區主權債務危機已經蔓延到該國。標準普爾(Standard & Poor’s)誤發法國信用評級遭下調訊息的事件表明，標普顯然已有此打算，只是過早按下了發送鍵。因此，歐洲金融穩定安排(EFSF)有可能也保不住它的AAA信用評級——眼下，歐洲整個紓困戰略都仰仗著這個脆弱而資金不足的組織。上週末，義大利政界表現出有望暫時恢復理智，這多少緩解了市場的壓力，但並未改變一個令人沮喪的現實：歐元區的金融體系幾周後可能就會崩潰。