Gold’s relentless ascent may continue – a wonderful investment opportunity stemming from the spreading loss of faith in fiat money. Or the fourfold price rise in seven years may be the result of fearful and naive buyers putting their faith in a barbarous relic. That faith could eventually be crushed, bringing hefty losses (as happened 31 years ago). These clashing world views were displayed last month in the US Congress. Representative Ron Paul, hard-money advocate and the Tea Party’s “intellectual godfather”, asked Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke whether gold was money. Told “no”, Mr Paul asked why central banks held so much of it then. The answer: “It’s tradition.” That tradition is not dead; the Bank of Korea just made a small purchase of the yellow metal, for example.
A rare voice of reason between overly emotional and excessively rational assessments of the metal came from speculator George Soros, who called gold “the ultimate bubble” – and had the good sense to invest in it while prices were still going up. He has mostly sold out.
Investor manias are profitable for those who cash in their gains in good time. The problem is always to pinpoint the top. For gold, there are reasons to hope for more. The current price is still about 30 per cent below its January 1980 peak, adjusted for inflation, and only
