This time has been different. After the 1997-1998 crisis, Asian central banks locked in big currency depreciations to aid their recoveries, and then fought their currencies’ subsequent rise. But since the 2008-2009 crisis, every Asian currency has been allowed to appreciate materially – with one notable exception. Against the US dollar the Korean won is about 15 per cent weaker today than it was in July 2007. That looks reasonable when set alongside the terminally-unloved Vietnamese dong (-22 per cent) or Pakistani rupee (-29 per cent), but much less so when compared with the Indonesian rupiah (+4 per cent), the Thai baht or the Malaysian ringgit (both +15 per cent).
The Bank of Korea’s intervention has been gentle but persistent: as the Royal Bank of Scotland points out, the BoK’s $59bn of spot and forward forex purchases last year were almost double the Asian average. So it is encouraging that Seoul is reporting accelerating export growth, while allowing – at last – its currency to strengthen. Since the beginning of the third quarter last year the won’s 12 per cent rise against the dollar has been bettered by just three of Asia’s 18 most-traded currencies. The picture from Wednesday’s gross domestic product figures should, therefore, be clear: vibrant trade sectors don’t need the prop of a weak currency.
Various macro-prudential measures – among them, limits on banks’ forex forward positions and loan-to-deposit ratio caps – seem to have tamed won volatility, which was deeply damaging during the crisis. Daily fluctuation in the dollar/won exchange rate was 0.41 per cent in the first quarter, well down from the average 0.99 per cent of 2008. But given that the country’s current account surplus is well above the long-run average (once adjusted for oil imports), the currency should be allowed to rise. Reclaiming pre-crisis levels should be a starting point.