The strife in Libya is a good reason for investors to go “risk-off”. There are many others: high levels for fiscal deficits, inflation and debts, freakily low policy interest rates, poor global co-ordination, possible Chinese property and commodity bubbles, and even an earthquake in New Zealand. Scary stuff, but where can safety-searching investors go?
They are not turning to gold, often considered the ultimate refuge asset. The price fell on Tuesday and is about where it was three months ago. This is reasonable; after doubling since the 2008 trough, gold looks like a beneficiary of too loose monetary policy.
The dollar rose on Tuesday, but this traditional safe haven is now a play on an over-indebted country with declining global influence – exemplified by its inability to influence events in the Middle East. The price of US Treasuries, the classic “risk-free” asset of financial theory, also rose on Tuesday. But the yield of 3.5 per cent on the 10-year bond does little to guard against the real risk that inflation will erode it.