Plus ça change. Two years ago, Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, and Merrill Lynch sold itself to Bank of America. The implication? Wall Street investment banks were dead. Not so. Two years after the third and fourth largest US investment banks disappeared, the top two, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, are very much alive. Combined, shares in these two survivors have fallen only 10 per cent since the eve of the Lehman collapse, in line with the S&P 500. The KBW/Philadelphia Stock Exchange banking index, covering the biggest commercial banks, has dropped by one-third in that time.
True, Goldman and Morgan Stanley changed their status to become bank holding companies. But their business models remain largely intact. This is in spite of the backlash against Goldman, fears for the economy and sluggish activity in core investment banking activities, such as mergers and acquisitions.
Why have the purer investment banks outperformed? The key reason is that they have disproportionately benefited from the Federal Reserve’s efforts to keep short-term interest rates down. A steep yield curve turbo-charged the high-volume “flow” businesses such as fixed income while the general revival in asset prices buoyed investment banks’ profitability. Winning market share from rivals struggling with even worse hangovers from the crisis was also good for business.