觀點全球經濟

Tough calls at end of bungee-jump recovery
「蹦極」復甦之後


瑞銀證券高級經濟顧問瑪格納斯:從去年穀底開始的「蹦極」經濟復甦似乎已經失去了勢頭。就目前的美歐經濟而言,印鈔票要比收緊政策強一些。

Financial markets were jolted this week by the news of a 27 per cent fall in existing US home sales in July to levels last seen almost 20 years ago. Although a drop was expected, a more ominous decline in housing activity and home prices is looming again, along with more pronounced weakness in aggregate final demand. The US may be growing, but by barely more than 1 per cent per annum. With Europe and Japan little better, it now looks as though the bungee-jump economic recovery from last year’s abyss has lost its momentum.

上週新聞報導顯示,7月美國現有房屋銷售下跌27%,降至大約20年前水準,這震動了美國金融市場。雖然人們之前已預測到下跌,但房屋交易與房價再度預示出更爲不祥的下滑,伴之以明顯減弱的最終總需求。美國經濟可能在成長,但每年只略高於1%。鑑於歐洲和日本的形勢也好不到哪裏去,從去年穀底開始的「蹦極」經濟復甦似乎已經失去了勢頭。

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