A hostile bid in fertile territory, or fertile minds getting carried away? Industrially, BHP Billiton’s $39bn offer for Canada’s PotashCorp makes some sense. Demand for potash – used to improve crop yields – is robust and PotashCorp is the largest producer, with more than a fifth of global mineral fertiliser capacity. The key word is “producer”. BHP has ample potash exploration acreage of its own in the Saskatchewan basin but getting its Jansen project to the production stage could take five years and, Morgan Stanley estimates, capital expenditure totalling $10bn-$12bn. Buying PotashCorp would bring forward BHP’s potash cash flows, and give it 30 per cent of the market. Nor would the acquisition be a stretch financially: the $45bn of debt lined up by BHP would lift the ratio of net debt to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation to just 1.2 times.
在肥料行業進行敵意收購——是不是有人熱昏了頭？從產業角度看，必和必拓(BHP Billiton)對加拿大鉀肥公司(PotashCorp)的390億美元收購報價有一定道理。鉀肥用於提高農作物收成，需求旺盛，而加拿大鉀肥公司是最大的生產商，擁有全球逾五分之一產能。這裏的關鍵詞是「生產商」。必和必拓自己在加拿大的薩斯喀徹溫盆地也擁有大片鉀肥勘探區域，但該公司的Jansen項目可能需要5年時間才能投產，而且據摩根史坦利(Morgan Stanley)估計，資本支出總額可能達到100億至120億美元。收購加拿大鉀肥公司將使必和必拓提前從鉀肥得到現金流，並使其佔據30%的市場。這宗收購對財務狀況也不會構成多大壓力：必和必拓安排的450億美元債務額度，將把其淨債務與扣除利息、稅項、折舊及攤銷前的盈利(Ebitda)之比提高至僅1.2。